#1 The S-AGE speaks: Shifting demographics mean a lot to Western civilization because maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1 children per woman.
In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5 (in 30 years, this means 70-80 million fewer Europeans.) In Germany, the number is 1.3. In Italy and Spain, the number is 1.2. They don't have young workers to replace the older ones, and they are importing Moslems. Today, the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have high birthrates. In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3 and they have chosen not to import most workers (at this moment in time, only foreign nationals in specialized professions such as college professors, physicians and athletes can be employed) but to encourage people to work later in life and increase their reliance on robots. By 2020, 1 in every 5 Japanese will be at least 70 years old.
The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. There is an increase in population because of immigration. The Federal workforce is on the brink of massive retirement; outsourcing to other nations is an established fact, and many other changes in technology and direction are conspiring to alter the course of America's economic and societal path.
The S-AGE asks: Beyond the large impact on Western civilization, how do you think the declining birthrate combined with pending retirements, increased immigration and related factors might impact America's economy in the near term (say…during your lifetime)?
#2 The S-AGE speaks: According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. needs 135,000 new computer professionals a year, but as of 2006, universities were only producing 49,000 computer science graduates a year. The BLS forecasts the need for science and engineering graduates to grow 26% to 1.25 million by 2012, while the number of graduates in those fields has remained relatively flat for two decades. Beyond BLS forecasts, here are additional stats that might provoke a comment or two. For instance, by 2010, the European Union will grant roughly 2 PhD's in Science and Engineering for every one U.S. PhD. Adam Segal follows up by noting the following in a 2004 article entitled Is America Losing its Edge? "For 50 years, the United States has maintained its economic edge by being better and faster than any other country at inventing and exploiting new technologies." Today, vastly increased global innovation poses some clear economic challenges for the U.S. Here's a great Blog for more on the subject.
Go to: http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2008/06/made-in-usa-scientific-innovation-on.html.
The S-AGE asks: What might the increased gap between business needs and the numbers of graduates in certain critical fields mean to your industry or business niche? And, of course, innovation is not a birth right nor is innovation limited to just the educated, but education does provide an advantage. What might be done to offset some of the deficits we face?
#3 The S-AGE comments: Until recently there has been very little information about where people over the age of 65 work in greatest numbers. Here are today's facts from The Urban Institute. People "65 or older and still working in America are statistically most likely to do retail, farming or janitorial work, in that order. In fact, the nation's stores employ more people 65 and over than the next two occupations combined."
Here's one comment to get you thinking about your own response: "These are not exactly the pictures of reinvention that you get in your monthly issue of Fortune, Money or AARP magazine," said Marc Freedman, author of Encore: Finding Work that Matters in the Second Half of Life. This is "an object lesson in the dangers of what could happen if we don't develop a compelling human resource strategy for an aging society."
And, remember, we are all growing older so strategy matters to your organization and, especially, to you. Here's a factoid that affects you as taken from the National Governors Association's report on best practices in workforce development: "The number of people in the labor force who are 55 years of age or older will increase by 49 percent from 2002 to 2012. The number of workers 16 to 24 years of age is projected to increase by 9 percent during the same time period."
The S-AGE asks: What about your industry? Do you have a strategy for a changing workplace – a strategy that includes older workers? If so, will you share a highlight or two with us?
WORKPLACE HOT SPOTS
What, exactly, has been promised by the political candidates to older workers? What impact do their promises (if kept) have on employers? You should know. The Wizards at the Liberty Lounge offer their analysis of the candidates' "promises made."
Go to: www.libertylounge.net/forums.
Completing the AARP Workforce Assessment Tool is an important step toward taking a needed first look at the impact of the aging workforce on your organization. Of particular interest to workforce planning strategists, we invite you to review and/or complete the assessment at:
www.aarp.org/employerresourcecenter.
Carleen MacKay & Brad Taft
