LISTEN TO THE FUTURE… Are there lurking dangers in the U.S. economy, society and, more immediately, in our maturing workplace?

Tell us your opinion, concern, ideas or comments about any ONE of the following topics:

1. Eroding Consumer Spending: If Baby Boomers control a majority of the nation’s assets and are the key to consumer spending, do you think they will continue to overspend in retirement? Or, will higher gas costs, additional healthcare premiums, and the responsibility of taking care of their longer-living parents and later life children drain their ability to contribute to our consumer-driven economy? What happens to spending when Boomers stop working?
2. Shifting Sands in Home Real Estate: Headlines tout a high rate of home foreclosures in the U.S. 43 States experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity. 5 -- California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Georgia -- accounted for more than half of the nation's total foreclosure filings this past July. Is there more bad news to come? What happens if real estate continues its downward spiral and Boomers can no longer count on real estate gains? Will they have to work much longer than anticipated?
3. Looming Difficulties in Funding of Benefits: Fed Chairman Bernake had this to say about retiring Boomers: “…With the increasing number of boomers becoming eligible for Social Security and Medicare and with the slowdown of economic activity there will be enormous budgetary pressures that will face the federal government which probably will result in lower benefits.” What might be the outcome for your children and theirs as related to Social Security, Medicare and Public Sector pensions? Will these benefits be relegated to the past? Do you anticipate paying higher taxes to subsidize continued benefits? Will Americans have to work longer and further delay eligibility for benefits? Tell us what you think.
4. Languishing Savings: According to the Congressional Budget Office, some economists are increasingly worried that low savings by Boomers could limit economic growth, stifle growth of investment and impact productivity and wages (which drive federal revenues). The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College released a new Index report this July that confirmed most working Americans are not saving enough money for retirement, despite recent academic articles and news stories that question the existence of a retirement crisis. Their report stated that nearly 45% of households will not have enough retirement income. What do you think about the widespread impact of low savings rates?
5. Over 65 Population Outpacing Taxpayer Workforce: In 2000 there were 4.8 people of ages 20 to 64 for each person age 65 or older, and that number is expected to decline to around 2.9 by 2030. Do you think this problem can be resolved by Boomers working longer or by other means? Tell us, please.
6. Changing Family Structure: According to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, the Boomers have fewer children and are less likely to be married than previous generations. Frey recently stated that higher rates of divorce and separation could result in greater financial hardships for aging Baby Boomers. In 1980, about two-thirds of Americans age 55 to 64 lived in married-couple households. That percentage fell to less than 58 percent in 2005. What impact, if any, do you anticipate from these facts? Will men or women be more adversely affected? What does the changing structure mean to work?
7. Managing Aging Nations: One country may choose to import people to replace smaller groups of younger citizens in the workplace. Another, such as Japan, may focus on helping people to work longer while backfilling by automating with robots. Japan is not importing people. There, soon-to-be lifelike robots are ready to walk, talk and perform tasks. Their bet is on the robots for labor replacements. What do you think about this approach? Is one approach right; is one wrong? What other choices are there?
8. Emerging demographics in the U.S.: For those who prefer images to words, how about commenting on the possible economic/societal effects of either or both of the following graphs?

Figure 1. Life Expectancy of 65-Year-Olds over Time

Source: Congressional Budget Office based on Social Security Administration.

Figure 2: Ratio of Population Ages 20 to 64
to Population Ages 65 and Over

Source: Congressional Budget Office based on Social Security Administration.

9. Linking the graphs to the following data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, what might you conclude about the changing numbers and percentages of mature workers in the workplace? This is what the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has to say: In 2005, about 24 million or 17% of all adult U.S. workers were over 55. By 2017, 24% of the workforce will be over 55. That’s 38 million of us.

   The 65-plus workforce will almost double to 10 million, or 6.4 % in the same time frame. Keep in mind that many (if not most) public sector employees retire at age 55 with pensions and it may cause you to think that these estimates are understated for the millions of folks in the private sector who are (or will be) pension-less. Do you think the BLS has understated the problem by not breaking down public/private sector workers or, perhaps, by not addressing those workers with pensions vs. those without this type of safety net?

   What do you have to say?